Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $818,297$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031,807.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031,807.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,535$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,970.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,970.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $95,234$ on 2020-10-02

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $136,219$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,203.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.7)}}\) (asimptote \(141,203.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,045$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,063.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 154.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,063.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,520$ on 2020-10-02

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,847,092$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,203,663.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 135.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,203,663.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $144,680$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,984.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 115.7)}}\) (asimptote \(148,984.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $402,753$ on 2020-10-02

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $466,590$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429,954.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(429,954.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,867$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,129.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 105.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,129.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,116$ on 2020-10-02

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,534$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,137.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 131.8)}}\) (asimptote \(158,137.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,495$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(960 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,381.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 240.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,381.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,743$ on 2020-10-02

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $841,532$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{926,274.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 154.2)}}\) (asimptote \(926,274.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,397$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(737 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,934.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 142.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,934.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61,182$ on 2020-10-02

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $779,689$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,213,558.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 186.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,213,558.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20,599$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,698.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 223.8)}}\) (asimptote \(64,698.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144,575$ on 2020-10-02

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,899$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,169.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,169.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $105$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 148.5)}}\) (asimptote \(133.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-10-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Suriname recovered 92%
Colombia recovered 64%
Bolivia recovered 48%
Peru recovered 43%
Venezuela recovered 27%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,820$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(765 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,004.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 167.6)}}\) (asimptote \(94,004.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $643$ on 2020-10-02

Best fit exponential: \(-1.23 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{835.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 158.6)}}\) (asimptote \(835.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,961$ on 2020-10-02