Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $818,297$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031,807.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031,807.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32,535$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,970.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,970.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $95,234$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $136,219$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{141,203.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 131.7)}}\) (asimptote \(141,203.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,045$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,063.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 154.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,063.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,520$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,847,092$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,203,663.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 135.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,203,663.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $144,680$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,984.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 115.7)}}\) (asimptote \(148,984.2\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $402,753$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $466,590$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{429,954.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(429,954.9\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,867$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,129.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 105.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,129.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,116$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $139,534$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,137.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 131.8)}}\) (asimptote \(158,137.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,495$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(960 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,381.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 240.9)}}\) (asimptote \(32,381.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,743$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $841,532$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{926,274.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 154.2)}}\) (asimptote \(926,274.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26,397$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(737 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,934.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 142.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,934.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61,182$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $779,689$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,213,558.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 186.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,213,558.1\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20,599$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,698.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 223.8)}}\) (asimptote \(64,698.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $144,575$ on 2020-10-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,899$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.74 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,169.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,169.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $105$ on 2020-10-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.89 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 148.5)}}\) (asimptote \(133.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79$ on 2020-10-02
